Looking ahead, the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and inflation are the main factors that will deeply impact the economy. The energy sector is highly dependent on the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. EU countries have already started to find new alternatives in dealing with new countries such as new LNG contracts from the US. Furthermore, the current geopolitical scenario raises serious uncertainty about the supply of key commodities for European states and lockdowns in major Chinese cities are significantly slowing the loading and unloading times of cargo ship containers. These factors are causing a slowdown to the supply chain and further pressure on prices globally. Finally, residual supply-side bottlenecks from the pandemic combined with the supply shortage mentioned are raising inflation. Besides, these last elements might also bring a future risk of stagflation as the most likely scenario and the probability of a recession in the coming years is clearly rising.